By Bob Tannenhauser
The NYPD announced the citywide crime statistics for the month of July, 2023, showing a decrease in five of the seven major crime categories compared to the same period in 2022.
According to the announcement, the first seven months of 2023 showed the same decrease in five of the seven major crime categories throughout New York City. Murder and rape incidents declined by 11.2% and 10.9%, respectively, with robbery, burglary, and grand larceny also showing declines.
Compiling crime stats requires checking several sites. According to data released on the NYPD crime stats site, felony assaults and grand larceny auto incidents increased by 5.5% and 18.3%, respectively, for the year through July 30, 2023. In addition to the seven major crime categories, we have included data for petit larceny and misdemeanor assaults.
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We then examined the data for the same period for the Upper West Side, precincts 20, 24 and Central Park, to determine if there were notable differences from citywide trends. The year-to-date (July 30) statistics for the UWS are consolidated and presented below.
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Four of the seven major crimes show decreases in incidents. There have been three murders on the UWS, compared to two the previous year. Incidents of rape, robbery, burglary, and grand larceny declined, while felony assaults and grand larceny auto increased. As with the citywide chart, we have included in the UWS precincts chart the data for petit larceny and misdemeanor assaults.
The data does not necessarily correlate with the public’s perception of whether crime is increasing or decreasing — or their own safety, according to experts. We reported last September on Crime on the Upper West Side Over the Decades, and again last October on NYC and Upper West Side Crime in the 21st Century. Both pieces suggest, as Dr. Neil Gross, a professor of sociology at Colby College, wrote in a New York Times editorial, “Fear doesn’t respond well to data.”
Ginia Bellafante pointed out in her Big City column in the Times, that it may be “the random acts of violence that make people believe that they are not safe….the question of how bad crime actually is versus how bad it is perceived to be is complicated by the occurrence of rare but terrifying incidents….These sensational moments, compounded by history and…the notion that if some acts of violence are random they can randomly happen to you — turn the walls of reason porous and flood us with emotion.”
Dr. Gross suggests that fear of crime may, paradoxically, make public safety worse. For one thing, it induces people to buy guns. “The solution to all this is not to keep insisting that crime isn’t as bad as people think,” Dr. Gross concluded. “[W]hile over-the-top fears may not be justified in most cases, the public safety situation in the United States does warrant concern.”
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Once a week or so, I drop in to Gray’s Papaya. The last few times I was there I was harassed by the same homeless guy. He hangs out inside the store and bothers people, sometimes hitting the window or wall with a newspaper.
I don’t report that. What he’s doing isn’t a crime, but it makes me feel unsafe because he’s clearly unstable.
These kinds of experiences that UWSers deal with don’t become part of the statistics, but they can greatly affect our perception of safety.
Yes, I wish I had more compassion, but these days when I see someone behaving even a touch erratically on the sidewalk, whether they seem homeless or wearing clean clothes, I’m immediately on guard and I make a point of staying out of arms reach. I don’t live in fear, but I am a bit more alert. I do believe the city is undergoing a mental health crisis that’s not documented in crime stats. I certainly don’t have a good answer for how to solve it. I don’t want to call police when I see someone ranting in the middle of the sidewalk, but I wish there was someone to call.
Yes!!! Call police. Or 311.
Call 911 when you are being harassed by an aggressive panhandler.
Yes, it is against the law to aggressively panhandle.
It is also against the law to panhandle in the subways, and within 10 feet of the bank door.
What does this do? It removes the individual from that area.
When I see this happened at a bank, I call 911 and report it.
My goal is to prevent an elderly individual from being harassed and being forced to pay up to leave the bank.
And never, interact with these individuals, always call the police.
Subway is a jungle this days , panhandling, stinky people sleeping, ladies with kids in their back begging you to buy chocolate, or blocking the stations with tables selling fruits . In case of emergency …. God help us
Vic, what you describe doesn’t make it “a jungle”. there are such gross exaggerations out there about the subway. I’m on the trains close to 2 hours a day, at all hours. there are cops all over the place and overall it is safe. Posts like yours create a false impression.
yes, there are mothers, possibly refugees, who go through the trains trying to sell chocolate. They are uniformly polite, i wouldn’t call it “begging.” yes, they often have children on their backs. They are trying to make a few dollars, it would be very few. People could have a little compassion. Would you switch places with them? Imagine what they have been through.
I have no issue with the migrants. What I do have an issue with is that we shouldn’t be mansplaining away legitimate concerns about safety women have on the Subway and let’s face it people aren’t enthusiastic about riding them even pre-pandemic. At the end of the day, people will seek to escape the subways no matter how many cops you add. If not to private cars, then to Uber, Lyft or Citibike.
response to Robert Spire:
The subway is not a “jungle” filled with crime. That is not “mansplaining.” That is a fact.
There are as many women on the subway as men.
People are concerned about their safety on the subway, people always will be concerned about their safety on the subway no matter how many cops you add, that is a fact. People will look for ANY excuse to avoid the subway, that is also a fact.
It’s true that SOME people will look for “any” excuse to avoid the subway. The subway can be difficult for some seniors (I am a senior and i have no problem with it, though the stairs from 96th get a little harder for me each day). It also can be difficult for people with limited mobility.
And richer people who can afford to always take a cab or Uber should do that.
But the subway remains the best, fastest, cleanest way to get around NYC, short of walking or biking.
There always will be incidents in the subway. It’s a huge system and a huge city. But if the subway is overwhelmingly safe, as it is right now, and people are still “concerned” for their safety, i don’t know what to do about that. Every time you drive a car, it is statistically more dangerous than the subway.
Where, exactly, did the original poster say that the individual they describe was panhandling? They said he was “bothering people”.
Kudos for excellent reporting, Bob! I would like to offer an observation and a suggestion: month-to-month crime statistics are notoriously unreliable–very far less than totally valuable–and criminologists typically only study crime statistics on much wider timeframes. I therefore suggest that articles about crime statistics include such an explanation/disclaimer.
I think it would also be helpful to include a disclaimer that the causes of crime (increases and decreases) are multifaceted and defy easy explanation from even the most seasoned experts.
Finally, I think it also would be helpful to factually report occasionally on the impact of known crime factors (e.g. socio-economic conditions, levels of incarceration and/or severity of punishment, number of police officers, etc.). For instance, bail reform–our current hot button issue–is not new in many jurisdictions in the United States and whatever available data there is largely shows that it is not responsible for an increase in crime.
Thank you for the sanest, most thought out response to a crime-related article I’ve seen on WSR.
Jerry, great comment. I do want to point out, though, that the statistics in this article are not month to month but year-to-date, so it is looking at crime data from the past 7 months aggregated. However, it sometimes is important to compare monthly numbers rather than just large scale aggregates. For example, murders are typically higher in the summer months than in the winter months. So comparing July to July can be a strong comparison. Criminologists might have a better idea of how to look at the data, like maybe Memorial Day-Labor Day, but that’s above my knowledge set.
A small group of just 10 career criminals was allowed to run amok across the Big Apple and rack up nearly 500 arrests after New York enacted its controversial bail reform law — and most of them are still out on the streets,
Stunning statistics compiled by the NYPD, and obtained first by The Post, show that the city’s alleged “worst of the worst” repeat offenders have been busted a total of 485 times since bail reform went into effect in 2020.
Two of the defendants are actually accused of embarking on lives of crime in the wake of bail reform, with one busted 33 times since 2020 and the other busted 22 times, all this year, the data shows.
Mayor Eric Adams — who’s been demanding that state legislators roll back the bail-reform law to crack down on repeat offenders — expressed outrage Wednesday while discussing the findings during an afternoon news conference at One Police Plaza.
“Our criminal justice system is insane,” he said.
“It is dangerous, it is harmful and it’s destroying the fabric of our city.”
Adams added: “Time and time again, our police officers make an arrest, and then the person who is arrested for assault, felonious assaults, robberies and gun possessions, they’re finding themselves back on the street within days– if not hours — after the arrest.”
https://nypost.com/2022/08/03/career-criminals-rack-up-nearly-500-arrests-since-ny-bail-reform-began/amp/
Crime in some categories are down. Crime in some categories are up. What is undeniable is the things that aren’t considered, or no longer considered, a crime. Just take a walk along Broadway and you’ll see it. It’s much worse now.
I think perceptions of decreased safety are really driven by two things.
First is that crime may be done YoY, but it is still elevated compared to the years immediately prior to the spike in 2020. Crime rates are comparable to levels last seen about 10 years ago. They may not be anywhere close to the levels seen in the 1980s or 90s but this is a real and quantifiable decrease in public safety.
Second is that there is still a pandemic overhang in the degradation of services and increase in public disorder. Although harder to measure with data, a good proxy is how NYPD traffic enforcement fell of of a cliff in 2020. This manifests itself in increased anecdotal observations of unlicensed vehicles, unlicensed driving, excessive speeding, etc. Then there is the perception of increased aggressive panhandling and random acts of violence. Recent headlines in the Rag and last Friday’s events in Union Square are examples of this.
As someone who rides the subway to work five days a week I definitely feel safer than a year ago. The trains have been great lately, no problems.
But if the Upper West Side had an express bus like the outer boroughs do and the UES did from 1971 until 2010, many Upper West Siders would abandon the subways for the express bus.
The West Side Rag seems to go out of its way to say it’s not as bad as we think. But it is. Assaults are up. Random attacks are up. Open drug use is up. Homeless encampments are up. Reckless dirt bike riders, clearly unstable people on the sidewalks and subways is part of everyday life. There is this idea that it’s all in our head. And that is what is so frustrating about this discussion.
The West Side Rag is not going out of its way to say it’s not as bad as we think. The West Side Rag is going out of its way to report facts. Nevertheless, a large amount of West Side Rag commenters prefer their feelings and perceptions over facts. Oh well.
Please don’t tell us how to feel and how to interpret the facts.
Pointing out the fact that crime today is at least 25% lower than when Giuliani “made us safe” isn’t telling you how to feel or how interpret the data.
But it is helpful for others to judge how bad the situation is and how much credence to give others as they voice their subjective opinions.
It’s clearly not all in our heads. But at the same time, you seem to ignore the fact that most major categories of crime are down. Both things can be true. Assaults, drug use, homelessness are up, which is horrific. Many major crimes are down. Why ONLY focus on the bad? There’s good news here too.
The dirt bikers used to be almost a nightly/daily occurrence on Broadway on the UWS but lately that hasn’t been the case. We haven’t had a big group come through in quite some time. My husband and I were just talking about that. I hope it stays that way.
Last Saturday evening, my wife, kids and I were waiting to cross 77th Street at Columbus. We heard a gang of bikers coming down Columbus towards us and so decided to stay on the sidewalk, knowing that the gangs tend not to heed the traffic signals. Several of them saw us waiting (at this point we had the light) and were hovering around the intersection, waiting for us to cross so that they could impede our progress. When they saw that we were not crossing, one of them rode up onto the sidewalk towards us, stopped just inches in front of us and then sped off down the sidewalk to the next intersection. They clearly get a kick out of trying to intimidate people.
Would it be possible to show the number of criminal incident /per number of people in the district (police or fire precinct etc)? I suspect that would make people feel better because the percentage of crimes compared to the much larger number of people suggests that actually the chances of any one person suffering a crime is so low.
Not that these crime stats are overly comforting, but I think the perception is made worse by all of the things that aren’t actually “crimes” but contribute to a feeling of general unease. Homeless people in front of oh so many empty storefronts, mentally disturbed people randomly talking to themselves on the sidewalks, chronic shoplifting from drug stores, etc. These “Quality of Life” issues are why “data does not necessarily correlate with people’s perceptions”.
If they could do ONE thing to make me feel safer it would be TRAFFIC LAW ENFORCEMENT. When my teenage grandkids from San Francisco visit, I tell them the only thing they REALLY have to worry about is crossing the street— the “usual” looking constantly over your left shoulder, stand way back at cubs, and DON’T just trust green lights. This simple enforcement should be doable. Sometimes I observe a police car just sitting there when someone BLATANTLY runs a red light. There’s no excuse from our police for THAT.
That Petit larceny (Aka shoplifting) is allegedly down 10% is laughable. Shoplifting is massively underreported.
I agree. There is also misclassification of crimes even when reported makes the statistics unreliable. No matter how many times I went to the 20th precinct earlier this year when my wallet was stolen, they classified it as “lost” – so no crime to appear on any report.
Great article, but I think the most meaningful statistics, by far, would compare 2023 year-to-date to 2019 year-to-date. 2019 would provide a benchmark before changes made to the justice system by progressives and before the pandemic.
Nope. You compare in blocks of 1, 2, 5, 10, 15 years. Which Jerry just did below.
There’s also been a lot of ‘de-policing’ that has nothing to do with bail reform and everything to do with the NYPD essentially going on silent strike because of the 2020 protests
2023 year-to-date – murders: 242
2022 *entire year* – murders: 438
2019 *entire year* – murders: 558
2010 *entire year* – murders: 868
1998 *entire year* – murders: 924
1993 *entire year* – murders: 2,420
1990 *entire year* – murders: 2,262
Your data is incorrect. The 2019 (the year that reader above wanted to use as a baseline ) number that you have is almost double the actual number! Please provide link supporting your information!
433 murders reported in 2022 ( https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2023/01/05/nypd-december-2022-crime-statistics )
488 murders in 2021
468 in 2020
319 in 2019, <<<—– This
295 in 2018
292 in 2017
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/despite-recent-uptick-new-york-city-crime-down-past-decades-2022-04-12/
Murder is the only category you can’t misinterpret, hence the numbers. However I wonder how many murders are now going into a manslaughter category.
The rest is underreported, downgraded, you name it.
OCME list cause of death as homicide. You can’t reclassify those numbers. Chicago tried it about a decade ago and got caught
It’s important to remember that the media landscape around crime has changed dramatically in the last twenty years. Local crime used to be reported as police blotter items in the back pages of the paper. Now nearly every incident is captured on security cameras or cellphones and brought to us in full color. Local TV news relies heavily on these to fill their broadcasts. Furthermore, websites like NextDoor and Citizen are full of stories about crimes, both real and imaginary. I don’t believe we are in a particularly high-crime era, but we are definitely in a high crime *awareness* era.
NYPD crime stats are, unfortunately, no longer reflective of the actual crime rate. For example, When someone is caught shoplifting, the chain stores no longer call the police. When people call NYPD about street assaults or menacing, the officers no longer file a report. Drug sales in the streets are disrupted temporarily but not reported.
The feeling among police and many people is, “If the perp is going to be back on the street in under 24 hours, why even bother reporting?”
you are claiming that when a person reports an assault to the NYPD (very different than “menacing”), the NYPD no longer files a report?
if that is true, you are accusing the NYPD of gross negligence and unprofessionalism. I am skeptical that it is true.
This is overall good news, and very well reported, thank you WSR. Worth highlighting, maybe, that two of categories that showed increase – misdemeanor and felony assault – are the two most likely to be under-reported, and those – especially as they are heard about – most likely to increase a perception of random violence and accompanying fear of attack. So good news about real overall major crimes can also include bad news about what we may perceive and feel.
The quoted numbers should be reassuring. The subjective perception of a lack of safety is not necessarily reflected in crime statistics- it can be moped drivers up on sidewalks with pausing to look for pedestrians, homeless or not- erratic and threatening behavior ,or even just a crowd- taking up camp for the day or 24 hours without care for cleanliness and obstructing the rest of on going life.
Not exactly crimes but contributors to a ‘sense’ of out of control danger
I was just walking home and saw a man sitting in the middle of the street at the intersection of 86 and Broadway. His shoes and some other belongings were on the sidewalk and he was kind of crab walking very slowly to get there. He was clearly not sane. I debated calling 911 but I’m fairly sure they would have done nothing.
This man needs to be committed. I have no mental health training but it was obvious that he was deeply troubled.
This does not count towards statistics. But it is a huge, increasingly common issue.
Someone sitting in the middle of the street or moving erratically in the street is indeed an imminent danger to themselves and others! 911, reporting that this is likely an emotionally disturbed person, and not agitated or threatening, is an appropriate call (as far as I know). If someone is ranting on the sidewalk or in a train, but not really threatening, you can call 311: this person needs help, and could easily be in a position of danger to themselves, but it is not a life threatening emergency. You can ask for support through the department of homeless services, or ask for a peer counseling mental health team to be alerted. I have only made this call once, and wish I’d made it another time: the dispatcher quickly got me to relate relevant details to the nearest transit authority group (this was in a subway station) and it sounded as if they were promptly going to follow up (I could not stay in the area). I have never called 988 – I believe that is the new mentality Health support line, but 311 should connect to similar outreach services locally.
Juan, and what crime was he committing? jaywalking?
indeed, there are too many homeless with mental health issues on the streets. it can be disconcerting and it gives the impression of things being out of control. But this is a vastly different issue than “crime.” In some cases there will be overlap, but those are a small minority of cases.
You admit to “having no mental health training” but yet you know that the man in question needs to be “committed”: e.g. locked up for a long time. I don’t think your 30 second experience allows you to draw that conclusion. Deeply troubled? Yes. “needs to be committed”? Be careful.
Our mental health professionals deal with this sort of stuff every day, these are not easy issues. In general, they are not policing issues.
The best proven way to treat this sort of person is with supportive permanent housing with wrap-around psychiatric services. (Of course, every case is different, but in general..) But every time a new facility is established on the UWS, the same commenters go bonkers. We have a large supportive housing facility on my block, several hundred people living there. Guess what? the block is safe, exactly as it has been for years. I support the facility.
What new faculties you are referring to? The ones without psychiatric intervention that is a root of the problem? The rest are just money makers for the land lord and the operators without any help for the mentally ill homeless.
We don’t have appropriate facilities with the mentally I’ll and they are not been institutionalized. The low barrier faculties you are referring to are creating more harm than good. They attract more homeless but don’t provide psychiatric treatment that can only be done in a medical facility.
Dana, i think you meant facilities, not “faculties”.
“Supportive housing” is supposed to include mental health services. The one supportive housing i am closely familiar with, the one on my block (I am a member of its Community Advisory Board), does provide formal behavioral health (Psychiatric) services. As far as i know, that is an integral part of the model.
it is absolutely untrue that holistic supportive housing “creates more harm than good”, including on the UWS. I agree with you that these should not be private for-profit programs, either nfp or run by NYC (Health + Hospitals).
A crime is a crime is a crime. Some crimes are reported . Many minor not. The numbers show a lot of it no matter if the number has increased or decreased.
I am old and almost always it is on my mind that I need to be alert and there is a chance of something bad happening as I walk the streets – especially at night.
I don’t know about you but what scares me the most living on the UWS are 2-wheel motorized vehicles.
Statistics do not reflect unreported incidents, which I suspect are more than many think.
Statistics creates a flawed picture. Always. Crime statistics – especially so, because so many minor episodes are not reported by people or companies disappointed in law enforcement response and generally in the direction in which the law reforms are moving. It. can be easily manipulated by taking certain periods of time and including only certain categories. I look at it with a grain of salt. My experience is more valid to me than stats. I have lived on the UWS for over 23 years and enjoyed it tremendously. I still do. But now I am not able to walk a block without being approached aggressively with a request for money or food. One time at 9 pm a guy was following my husband and I for a block. The streets were deserted, and it was scary. We were able to get away but dud not report it. There are more people sitting on the sidewalk begging and homeless sleeping. I work part time from home. And when on occasion I have to take a subway train, there is a mentally disturbed person in my car every single time, or someone insanely loud, or a smelly homeless sleeping and occupying the entire bench. I reported one severely disturbed person to the train conductor once. He shrugged and turned away from me. I am sure he followed the instruction from above. I no longer report anything. If I had to prove it to those who prefer wearing rosy glasses. I could undertake a project taking photos and videos, but I am afraid it will jeopardize my life. I love the city. It pains me to see how it has changed and continues to change. We can make fun of Giuliani, but let’s be honest,: without a firm hand putting homeless and mentally unstable away from the street, the city is doomed. It has to be done with compassion and according to the laws. Pretending all is fine because crime stats are good, is escaping reality.
They should change the name from “Crime” to “Reported Crime”.
Remember, kids, your eyes collect data too. Trust them more.
Doesn’t seem correct? Are you including
the vast amount of merchant robberies happening
with increasing frequency!?
Remember that New York has Kendras Law. Some of us believe it is vastly underutilized
https://omh.ny.gov/omhweb/kendra_web/khome.htm
I had stopped by the CVS on 93rd and Broadway this morning when 4 men with bags came in and began clearing the shelves of merchandise. Unfortunately, there were no police around and the three women clerks were helpless to stop them. When I foolishly remarked to one of the men that he was stealing, he retorted “so what”.
The City needs to seriously consider its policy of, ignoring petty larceny. Aside from forcing retailers out of the City, it is destructive to the fabric of any community.