By Bob Tannenhauser
Do you think Upper West Side crime rates are rising, and are you more fearful for your safety? In a recent article in the Rag we traced the incidents of various categories of crimes on the Upper West Side over four decades to compare the perception of those who believe crime is on the rise with actual crime statistics. Taking the long view, we found (starting with 1990 to today), crime rates in the neighborhood have “fallen dramatically in the seven felony categories: murder, rape, robbery, felony assault, burglary, grand larceny and auto theft.”
But perception and reality are not always the same. A recent Spectrum News/Sienna College Poll questioned 1,000 demographically diverse New York City residents about crime and other issues. According to the data, 70% of those polled felt less safe since the pandemic, 76% are concerned that they could be the victim of a violent crime, and 69% are concerned that a shooting targeting people based upon ethnicity, race or religion will happen in their neighborhood.
We also looked at the most recent New York Police Department crime statistics, for the city and for the Upper West Side (24th, 20th and Central Park Precincts), to see if the data confirms the perception of an increase in violent crimes or threats of violence – namely, murder, rape, and assault. (The other felony categories involve theft of property).
Here’s what the numbers show: Citywide, crimes involving violence against people fell from over 118,000 incidents in 2000 to over 75,000 in 2021. But this year, over 67,000 violent crimes were recorded from January 1 to August 9, compared to over 56,000 for the same period in 2021.
On the Upper West Side violent crimes fell from over 1,800 in 2000 to slightly over 1,000 in 2021. But looking at 2022 through August 9, over 938 violent crimes were recorded, compared to 788 for the same period in 2021.
The data show that, both citywide and on the Upper West Side, the number of violent crimes reported in 2021 was fairly close to 2019 pre-pandemic levels, while 2022 shows some slight trending upward.
In our look at crime statistics last month, Jeffrey Butts, a research professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, offered some cautionary analysis, noting that crime rates fluctuate constantly, and “You never understand the history of something until you can look at it with a little bit of distance.” So, we’ll keep monitoring but will also wait to see if and when new trends emerge.
Thank you for these deep dives. I think two key challenge with the data are:
1) Proclivity to report certain issues can vary. The public and political relationship with the police is changing, and we aren’t yet able to see how that may be reducing or increasing people’s likelihood to report to the police.
2) The perception of safety may be eroding due to issues that aren’t reported as crimes, eg people menacing others on the street, encampments, drunken street/subway behavior, etc
I think that constantly being baraged by scooters, dirt bikes, motor bikes that are completely out of control, is taking a toll on perceptions of safety. Crossing with the light, requires checing 360 to avoid being hit.
It is also the perception that the police do nothing about the scooters, dirt bikes, motor bikes that obey no rules and go through red lights and ride on sidewalks. It feels like the wild west just to cross the street. How about giving out tickets, reprimands, etc. At least then the pedestrian might have the feeling that someone was on our side.
I totally agree, BUT, police cars can’t safely chase scooters, motorcycles, etc. Not many have valid identifying plates anyway that they or good Samaritans can have traced back. It’s too bad that in my mind it’s come down to the responsibility for safely navigating streets has shifted solely to pedestrians. Anyone have a better idea?
The police could actually WATCH as we are nearly hit and step in and ask for ID and issue a warning…
If this requires bikers, etc., to get a license, so be it. You can get one for a dog easily enough. No dog ever intimidated me while walking—yet common, for countless human beings to do to each other.
In the last two weeks running early evening in Central Park after dark I have been targeted by youth on bikes and small motorbikes driving at me in runners lane. They play checkin but I fear one day they will hit me. One can’t report that and there are no police there anyway
It’s doubtful that a proclivity to report varies by time or by place. If a person finds their apartment burgled, or their car broken into, they will or won’t report for a variety of reasons including the amount of loss and whether a police report will enable insurance to cover it.
But there’s one crime that always gets reported, murder. And the number there is down year over year. Moreover, the murder rate in NY is low compared to the rest of the country.
Your second point is spot on.
But the murder rate in NY isn’t favorable compared to areas with similar income levels. And that’s the rub.
Manhattan is a wealthy island of highly educated individuals. You can’t compare it to Saint Louis or Detroit and then say that crime here is low. The appropriate peer set is equally wealthy areas, which in the US include places like Northern Virginia, Palm Beach, Scottsdale, Boulder, and other global cities such as London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Geneva, etc.
John Oliver had a great segment this week that sums up exactly how I feel about crime reporting:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kCOnGjvYKI0
It’s easy to make jokes about crime if you’ve never been a victim. Let’s see how funny he thinks it is when something awful happens to a close friend and/or family member. And he was referring to a car being vandalized. Not a stabbing/shooting/rape.
John Oliver is….to use a family-appropriate term…a self-important JERK whose his lame sarcasm, his banging on his desk like a spoiled-brat, and his holier-than-everything attitude will keep up his ratings.
Actually, he is a symbol of today where everyone is convinced that his/her opinions are 100% correct.
He turned off this viewer after an episode a week-or-so-ago entirely devoted to ridiculing ” Law and Order”, a series boasting 20+ seasons !
His point? The show makes people foolishly respect police/lcourts..GASP!!, how un-hip!
Ya know what’s REALLY un-hip John? Believing yours is the only correct opinion !
Hmm, interesting name you’ve chosen.
I had it first.
he lost me on his armchair lazy woke analysis of the ongoing conflict with Hamas.
Yes – self-entitled brat who will be condescending and holler than thou
He lost me when he condemned JK Rowling for saying that it’s probably not a great idea to allow literally any man to have free access to women’s bathrooms and locker rooms, as long as the men in question claim to have a “female gender identity.”
BTW, did you know that that’s literally the law in NYS right now? Google the 2019 GENDA bill. Literally any man is allowed to invade women’s single-sex spaces, “regardless of the individual’s sex assigned at birth, anatomy, medical history, appearance, or the sex indicated on the individual’s ID card.”
Literally any man can invade women’s spaces, no questions asked. It is actually “unlawful discrimination” to “require individuals to show medical or other documents in order to use facilities consistent with their gender identity.” LITERALLY ANY MAN CAN GO IN, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.
California has an almost identical law, and it has already led to incidents like the famous WiSpa incident, where a sex offender (a LITERAL sex offender on the sex offender registry) was allowed to parade around in the women-only area, with a halfway-erect penis, in front of nude women and LITTLE GIRLS. The staff at the spa legally could not remove him since he claimed to be transgender. Because literally any man can just claim to be transgender and enter women’s spaces with impunity. That is the LAW.
This is the kind of s*** women have to deal with now, and John Oliver thinks it’s NBD and women — like Rowling — who object are just vile bigots. But of course he does! He’s a man who never has to deal with being followed, harassed, intimidated, flashed, masturbated at, or ogled on a regular basis.
I switched the TV off after he told JK Rowling to “go away, forever” and I’ve never looked back. I have ZERO tolerance left for men who refuse to consider that maybe, just MAYBE, women have a better understanding of male sexual violence and harassment than they do.
Predators pursue entire careers in teaching, priesthood, coaching, healthcare, etc., in order to have access to their preferred victims. Yet we’re supposed to believe that they won’t slap on a wig and some lipstick so they can have free rein in the women’s locker room? Incidentally, did you know there is an entire porn category consisting of spy cams planted in women’s toilets and locker rooms?
Gumpy West Sider: I totally agree. After that show, with Oliver’s self important condemnation of Israel’s defense against being bombarded with rockets from Hamas, I stopped watching his show. I’d like to know what on-the-ground experience he has in the area. I doubt he’s every even been there as a tourist. He’s a comic, not an international relations expert. For some reason, self important comics across the board have taken to expressing their opinions on issues about which they know next to nothing. And, when anyone pushes back, they think it’s inappropriate. Trevor Noah is another example. They should stay in their lane and just sick to comedy.
Yesterday my husband was menaced at the 96th street subway station at 4 pm. A week ago at 11 am I was chased up Riverside in the low 70’s by a man screaming and spitting at me. Two weeks ago during the daytime my kid and her friend were targeted and threatened and on the 2 train. None of these incidents were reported. There is perception but there is also fact. Frequent smaller incidents at unpredictable times adds up to a cumulative reality that one must be increasingly watchful at all times. Murder and robbery rates are helpful but it’s the quality of life incidents that seem to be on the rise for which no solution is offered.
Oyster, your eloquence is refreshing and moving. Thank you for being an honest voice in this matter.
I’m sorry to read this, but it matches what we’re all feeling. This is why the data are so incomplete as to be unmeaningful.
This is a great point. Dozens of these little (I use that word ironically) incidents happen every day but none of them get reported. It all adds up in perception of crime and safety in the neighborhood. But it’s almost impossible to quantify, so we’re left with disingenuous conclusions like how crime is falling.
@Oyster so sorry that you and your family experienced these incidents. I think you are on to something with the unpredictability issue.
I wonder if what has changed isn’t the sheer number of incidents, but the unpredictability of these incidents? Times of day, precise locations? Like the pandemic shook up some otherwise stable variables that necessitates a recalibration of how to avoid such incidents now.
You are very kind. We are fortunate in that we are able bodied. My concern is for older folks and those that are not. We were upset, they could be hurt. I said to my daughter the other day “Remember those eyes you have in the back of your head? Use them.”
An even deeper dive is possible and worthwhile.
It shows that crime spiked in the last 3 months of 2021, and has been fairly level since. The first half of 2021? We were actually on pace for a near record low in crime. Thus the increase, Jan – July 2022 compared to Jan – July 2021 appeared great. In fact, the crime rate month to month was steady.
And now that we’re into the period where crime spiked last year? The week over week this year to last year shows a one half of one percent change citywide.
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-city.pdf
Meanwhile, week over week and month over month on the Upper West Side? Crime is down by 20% week over week and by 14% month over month.
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/nypd/stats/crime-statistics/borough-and-precinct-crime-stats.page#manhattan
We’re not “getting” less safe, we “got” less safe and – while we have to turn that around – the surge is over.
Since COVID, I have noticed more “shady” characters when I walk my dog in the early morning or after dark. I try to walk him now only during daylight hours. I did have one mentally-ill-seeming person yell at me and start running towards me from a block away. It was very unnerving and it’s incredbly disheartening.
The statistics don’t tell the story. How many less people are out at night? Lots. Restaurants close at 9 around me. Streets are empty by 10pm. Would you say that 30% less people are walking around at night? Easily. I don’t take the subway anymore. Think I’m alone in that? Hardly. 60% of midtown office space is still vacant! Tourism is down majorly. Additionally, how many crimes are taking place that go unreported simply because they are ubiquitous and people know that nothing is going to be done, in fact the criminal is going to BE OUT BY THE END OF THE DAY and possibly revisit them? How many thefts from stores are not even reported because vendors know its pointless and why bother filling out paperwork? Its really hard to believe that anyone who has lived in this city for more than 5 years can tell another with a straight face that crime is the same.
Do you remember how the city was during the Bloomberg administration? Where the front page of newspapers of our cities problem was POSSIBLY BANNING LARGE SODA from being sold? Remember how wonderful it was to walk around the Upper West Side, and take the subway at any hour of the day, and not to even think about being assaulted? ENOUGH WITH THE GASLIGHTING how it is “not so bad”, or it always was this bad.
100% accurate.
The city is not the same as five years ago, for sure! No one is suggesting that. You seem to be saying that the city is having a long recovery from Covid emptiness – very true – and this means vacancy, economic stress, and public and private distress and discomfort. All this is true. It’s a weirdly tough time in the city with rents so high but the human movement so different. I also think you are right that patterns of organized/casual crime – like the “flash mob type” clear outs of retail stores may be more common – and police are under pressure to take on these very difficult to target networks. The streets, buses, subways, late hours, do feel very different and not in good ways. Those of us lucky enough to have steady housing, steady work, even steadily-ish social and emotional lives feel it much less than those in more fragile circumstances. Not an easy time, for sure.
Please. Anyone who lives here for over a decade, like I have, knows how things have changed from Columbus Circle to 110th street. I don’t care what the police “stats” say. Lately though, the previously horrific gathering area by the 96th and Broadway subway station has been getting much better, likely due to the constant presence of cops standing there most of the day.
I have lived on the UWS for a decade (West 70s) and I haven’t seen any noticeable change in the last ten years, except perhaps for a few distinct blocks (i.e. the block with the McDonald’s on the west side of Broadway between 70th and 71st). Midtown, on the other hand…
I can’t believe you are even saying this. West 70’s – I’ve never been approached so much in the West 70’s as I have the last 3-4 years, especially around 72nd St. Never have seen so many people sleeping on the sidewalks and at Verdi Square as much as the last 3 years. Let’s not forget the man who was punched in the head at Pappardella while eating outside a year ago and there are certainly more. This wasn’t happening 5 years ago. A hell of a lot has changed and if we don’t vote for people who will work hard to change it back, we will be stuck looking over our shoulders wherever we walk.
If all Republicans are elected, will crime be reduced to levels that we can tolerate? What will Republicans do to reduce the number of mentally ill, addicts, homeless, gangs, borderline violent teenagers, etc?
For starters, republicans will prosecute crime and they will stop violent offenders from being released without bail (something that was never supposed to happen, but is happening daily). Those things alone will make a lot of people think twice before committing crimes. Right now, criminals are brazen and have little fear of being caught or serving time. Democrat policies have created a literal nightmare scenario and almost incentivized crime. Everyday I hear from my window someone screaming and threatening someone on the street and going off on them. This is like an hourly occurrence. Is that reflected in the graph?
Repeal. Bail. Reform. If this is done, things will get MUCH, MUCH BETTER.
You don’t want Nassau County law and order toughness.
Fascinating hypothesis. And the caps make it so much more gripping.
Anyway, and studies to back up this up? I’ll offer some contained in these links, but I don’t think you’ll like them.
https://www.courtinnovation.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/2021-02/Handout_Bail_Reform_Crime_02032021.pdf
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/facts-bail-reform-and-crime-rates-new-york-state
https://www.americanprogress.org/article/cash-bail-reform-is-not-a-threat-to-public-safety/
https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/current-state-bail-reform-united-states-results-landscape-analysis-bail-reforms-across
these articles are specious. to begin with they all say there’s no evidence that the increase crime–which is not in dispute — was caused by bail reforms as opposed to other factors. It’s not really possible to conclusively rule out other factors. You can’t run a double blind lab study for this.
these links cite studies showing that only a few released went on to commit serious violent felonies. ok, but those studies aren’t exaining hte real issue with bail reform. what we actually want to know is: how many people out on bail ONLY because of bail reform went on to reoffend violently?
as a perentage of overall arrests, it may be that a small portion reoffend after being out on bail. that is what one would expect to happen. Many of those will be first time offenders, one-offs, like a drunken bar fights that leads to a first arrest. But all of these one-offs would ot have gottten cash bail imposed on them under the a judge exercising their discretion or would have raised cash bail. A drunken college student in a bar fight arrested the first time is not going to get $10,000 bail from a judge, they’d get nothing or $250 which they would find a way to raise. You know who can’t raise $250 for bail (which in reality requires far less as bail bond companies will loan you the money)? people whose family and friends arent’ gong to help them out for the 15th time, or mentally ill homeless people who burned their bridges a decade ago. And it is those people who cause the violence you read about.
These reform laws took away the discretion of judge to say Mr. Smith is not going out on the street without bail for his 9th violent offense, and it is a Mr. Smith that will then commit a 10th offense.
I don’t care for “statistics”, I have two eyes and am out and about every day.
Perhaps another question: How much confidence does the public have in the crime statistics provided by NYPD?
Does the public believe that NYPD underreports crimes to make themselves look better?
Have members of the public ever been dissuaded from reporting a crime, or perhaps worse, berated by NYPD for reporting an incident? (I have.)
These too are important issues.
Garbage data in, garbage statistics out.
That’s a claim that has been made for 30 years.
this is what I have been saying on this issue, that people don’t care, or feel, that we are still much better off than in 2000. people remember the last yer or two and compare the present against that.
Also, do these statistics account for people standing n the street and screaming, spitting at you? what crime is taht? disorderly conduct? whatever it is, it rarely makes the stats because people know cops don’t care that some deranged person was screaming at you or spit in your direction.
this is what we all see a LOT more of. threatening behavior that we didn’t see before, that makes us fearful. more mentally ill people screaming. more teens smolking weed and drinking openly during school hours on brownstone steps and things of that nature. more aggressive panhandling where older women get followed until they give up a bicj or two. more people urinating and worse in public. these aren’t violent crimes but they make everyone feel unsafe and it absilutely lowers quality of life, and eventually does lead t omore violent crime (go tell the teens to get off the stairs and see what happens)
Just so you know, and I despise this is the case, it is unfortunately LEGAL to aggressively panhandle, loiter and lurk for hours, and smoke weed on the sidewalks. This is why the NYPD is frustrated. The NYPD also brings mentally ill individuals to the hospital and they are out in several hours. I see it every day out our windows. Vote for people who will speak to and encourage public safety and quality of life and have been speaking about it proactively and not hiding it. That’ the only thing that will change things.
Its nice to see that certain categories of crime have not substantially increased (though I personally think assaults are far under reported in recent years), but the reality that isn’t being measured by these stats is the day to day barrage we all endure on our quality of life and sense of safety as people randomly scream in our faces, spit at pedestrians, urinate and defecate in the streets and the subway, and aggressively panhandle. I am truly concerned about the current trajectory of our City and neighborhood.
I grew up on 88th & Bway and lived there from 1955/6 to 1978. Thereafter I moved to Queens, Fla. and back to the UWS in the same apartment. Loved living there. Now I live in NJ after retirement. I miss my old NYC but it hasn’t been the same or safe in years.
In the past if someone engaged in theft, destructive, antisocial, threatening, or menacing behaviors something was done including removing them from the neighborhood if they couldn’t learn to control their behavior and broke laws. Now even if the police are called they are back in their same spot the next time you walk by. So, you need to weigh the personal risks of reporting something and being physically harmed in retaliation. Given the placement of many of these shelters, these people are your neighbors. They know who you are and where you live. Many carry implements that look like they can be used as weapons. We’ve all read the blurbs about neighbors getting physically harmed by some of these vagrants and yet they are here day in and day out. Which statistic do you want to be? So what has changed, it’s not Covid, its the fact that the perps who acted this way were dealt with by law enforcement. Now that is considered “unwoke.” Because just like that, one day they will stop acting this way and choose a different path in life.
Removed from the neighborhood and put where?
Now THIS is what they call a deep dive, not a silly graph.
Will you please print the same study separating the three precincts and their crime rates in the different categories over the same years. I think that starker differences might well emerge. Thank you.
There’s a helpful link in the article to the web site of the 20th Precinct, where many of us live. That appears to show year-to-date crime is up 26% and in the last two years up 55%. Not a problem?
I’m sure that each and every crime was reported during summer of BLM.
In order to have proper data interpretation , you have to have accurate data. Crime is seriously underreported and downgraded now. Therefore interpretation with graphs and such is meaningless.
Also, why WSR keeps pushing this “crime rate fell” topic? It is the second almost identical article in a week.
I learned about the uselessness of reporting to the police years ago when my son was pulled off his bike by 2 young men and had his bike stolen while riding in Central Park. When we went to the police station in the park to report this, the police officer said that he would put it down as a theft. I protested that it was not a theft but a violent robbery, But he said, “We will keep it as a theft” So, he was able to “reduce robberies” in the park with the stroke of a pen. Figures don’t lie but liars figure.
I grew up on the UWS in the 60’s and never really felt unsafe. There were certain blocks we all knew to avoid, but to me my neighborhood felt like my my home and I loved it
The 70’s were not the best time to ride the crime-ridden subways, so I didn’t.
My worst nightmares have come tp pass over the years; technology has ravaged human decency. I am SHOCKED (though I shouldn’t be..where are the phone booths (so what if people peed in them?). The bicycle riders and electric scooters didn’t put people’s lives at risk on a DAILY basis; Nerds liked likde gadgets but they have taken over the planet didn’t crave gadgets and the money to buy them with, all of which contribute to what can only be called uncaring and inhumane. All the shopkeepers knew me; they looked out for me; people mattered to other people. And the aggression of gun violence terrifies me. I am sure I am not alone. Books were made of paper, carefully bound; people looked at each other, not at their phones, Pen and paper, a luxury to survivors of WW II and ,I am sure, others. The UWS was teeming with artists and actors and writers who used typewriters, leading such interesting lives…
I have to stop or I might cry.
It wasn’t Mayberry(so boring). But my Magic 8-Ball was as fascinating ( or more) than any cell phones. I am glad that I am old enough to know that these nightmares are temporary, as we all are.
Sorry for typos, and mistakes. I’m not stupid, just overwrought!
We have drug dealer trucks with flashing neon signs at our intersections and wonder that crime is up
This is all political. Crime rates have not gone up. They are MUCH lower than the late 70’s-80’s. And declining/steady since. Republicans are in a bind – Trump’s a lying crook, outlawing abortion is a big looser, the economy that is controlled by US government is rebounding, opposing banning library books I hope is an easy decision, shipping refugees’ north is no solution, etc. etc. It’s the republicans only issue that uniformed voters will buy – even if it’s not supported by stats. I’d move to Canada but I’m too old.
Most residents of the neighborhood weren’t even alive in the ‘70s or ‘80s given the median age here. A substantial fraction weren’t even around in the ‘90s.
Essentially what you’re arguing is that, “because things aren’t as bad as they were, they’re alright”. By that flawed logic, things aren’t as bad for lgbtq persons today as they were in the ‘70s and therefore we don’t need to do anything about present conditions.
And so, your post lacks merit.
The city is having a death by a 1000 cuts moment….just because each of those cuts don’t need stitches, doesn’t mean they don’t cause harm.
I find this article from WSR illuminating as it speaks about actual crime statistics rather than only highlighting particular incidents which may inform but also scare a number of readers. It’s interesting how often the perception of crime or the hyping of criminal incidents happens at election time in order to prop up a particular party or candidate-to claim they they are the law and order party and only voting for them will stop this tremendous surge in crime that is greatly overstated. It’s a cheap tactic. No one wants to have crime in their neighborhood or to be the victim of crime. We should work with our community leaders to do a better job. But knee jerk reactions should be avoided. This article has something to say on the subject. https://prospect.org/politics/altercation-roots-of-crime-hysteria/
Great article…. I feel safer already!
I think it would be worth exploring the context of these numbers. I think people are more fearful because there seems to be more random attacks during daylight and in areas that tend to be well populated. Not too many years ago, I remember noting crimes/attacks happening in the late night hours and feeling wary about being out at 3am. I think it’s the randomness and daylight “sucker punches” that have us feeling vulnerable. It would be interesting if the west side rag analyzed its own reporting over the years. What crimes has it reported and has the context changed at all.